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OECD Economic Outlook No. 86
November - Volume 2009 Issue 2
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- Table of contents
- Summary of projections
- Editorial: Preparing the exit
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Chapter 1. General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
- + Overview
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Forces acting on OECD economies
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Financial market developments
- Figure 1.1. Interbank lending rates have fallen to very low levels
- Figure 1.2. Money market conditions have improved remarkably
- Figure 1.3. Bank lending growth has collapsed
- Figure 1.4. Corporate bond yields have declined considerably
- Figure 1.5. Shares do not appear overvalued relative to cyclically-adjusted earnings
- Figure 1.6. Financial conditions indices have recovered
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Other forces acting on OECD economies
- Figure 1.7. World trade growth is now rebounding
- Box 1.1. Household balance sheets and the saving rate
- Table 1.2. Real house prices are falling almost everywhere
- Figure 1.8. Housing investment is below peak levels
- Figure 1.9. Business investment has fallen sharply
- Figure 1.10. The OECD inventory cycle is turning
- Figure 1.11. Oil prices have rebounded
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Financial market developments
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Growth prospects
- Box 1.2. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections
- Table 1.3. World trade will recover and imbalances remain lower than before
- Table 1.4. Labour markets conditions will turn up slowly
- Figure 1.12. Unemployment will remain high in the OECD
- Box 1.3. The labour market in the economic downturn
- Box 1.4. Accounting for recent developments in global trade balances
- Box 1.5. Possible risks to the recovery
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Policy responses and requirements
- + Monetary policy
- + Financial market policy
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Fiscal policy
- Figure 1.14. Government debt levels are pushed up to record highs
- Table 1.6. Fiscal positions will improve only slowly
- Box 1.7. The fall in government revenues and prospects for recovery
- Table 1.7. The effects of single-country and synchronised fiscal consolidation
- Figure 1.15. Sovereign bond spreads in the euro area remain above pre-crisis levels
- Box 1.8. Fiscal consolidation and economic growth in the medium term
- + Structural policy
- + Appendix 1.A1. A stylised medium-term scenario
- + Appendix 1.A2. Medium-term fiscal consolidation plans
- Bibliography
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Chapter 2. The automobile industry in and beyond the crisis
- Introduction and summary
- + The importance of the automobile industry in the economy
- + How closely related are the automobile and the business cycles?
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The automobile industry has been severely affected by the economic downturn
- Figure 2.5. Car sales growth
- Figure 2.6. New passenger car registrations in Western Europe by type
- Table 2.2. Passenger vehicle production levels and growth in countries producing one million or more units in 2008
- Figure 2.7. Contributions of income and financial market conditions to car sales growth
- + Governments have encouraged car purchases
- + Prospects for the short and medium term differ across regions
- + Appendix 2.A1. Error – Correction model of car sales
- + Appendix 2.A2. Car sales in the medium term
- Bibliography
- + Chapter 3. Developments in individuals OECD countries
- + Chapter 4. Developments in selected non-member economies
- Special chapters in recent issues of OECD Economic Outlook
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Statistical annex
- Country classification
- Weighting scheme for aggregate measures
- Irrevocable euro conversion rates
- National accounts reporting systems, base-years and latest data updates
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Annex tables
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Demand and Output
- Annex Table 1. Real GDP
- Annex Table 2. Nominal GDP
- Annex Table 3. Real private consumption expenditure
- Annex Table 4. Real public consumption expenditure
- Annex Table 5. Real total gross fixed capital formation
- Annex Table 6. Real gross private non-residential fixed capital formation
- Annex Table 7. Real gross residential fixed capital formation
- Annex Table 8. Real total domestic demand
- Annex Table 9. Foreign balance contributions to changes in real GDP
- Annex Table 10. Output gaps
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Wages, Costs, Unemployment and Inflation
- Annex Table 11. Compensation per employee in the private sector
- Annex Table 12. Labour productivity in the total economy
- Annex Table 13. Unemployment rates: commonly used definitions
- Annex Table 14. Harmonised unemployment rates
- Annex Table 15. Labour force, employment and unemployment
- Annex Table 16. GDP deflators
- Annex Table 17. Private consumption deflators
- Annex Table 18. Consumer price indices
- Annex Table 19. Oil and other primary commodity markets
- + Key Supply-Side data
- + Saving
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Fiscal Balances and Public Indebteness
- Annex Table 25. General government total outlays
- Annex Table 26. General government total tax and non-tax receipts
- Annex Table 27. General government financial balances
- Annex Table 28. General government cyclically-adjusted balances
- Annex Table 29. General government underlying balances
- Annex Table 30. General government underlying primary balances
- Annex Table 31. General government net debt interest payments
- Annex Table 32. General government gross financial liabilities
- Annex Table 33. General government net financial liabilities
- + Interest Rates and Exchange Rates
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External Trade and Payments
- Annex Table 38. Export volumes of goods and services
- Annex Table 39. Import volumes of goods and services
- Annex Table 40. Export prices of goods and services
- Annex Table 41. Import prices of goods and services
- Annex Table 42. Competitive positions: relative consumer prices
- Annex Table 43. Competitive positions: relative unit labour costs
- Annex Table 44. Export performance for total goods and services
- Annex Table 45. Shares in world exports and imports
- Annex Table 46. Geographical structure of world trade growth
- Annex Table 47. Trade balances for goods and services
- Annex Table 48. Investment income, net
- Annex Table 49. Total transfers, net
- Annex Table 50. Current account balances
- Annex Table 51. Current account balances as a percentage of GDP
- Annex Table 52. Structure of current account balances of major world regions
- Annex Table 53. Export market growth in goods and services
- Annex Table 54. Import penetration
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Other background Data
- Annex Table 55. Quarterly demand and output projections
- Annex Table 56. Quarterly price, cost and unemployment projections
- Annex Table 57. Contributions to changes in real GDP in OECD countries
- Annex Table 58. Household wealth and indebtedness
- Annex Table 59. House prices
- Annex Table 60. House price ratios
- Annex Table 61. Central government financial balances
- Annex Table 62. Maastricht definition of general government gross public debt
- Annex Table 63. Monetary and credit aggregates: recent trends
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Demand and Output
Bislang ist wirtschaftliche Erholung in den OECD-Ländern noch zu schwach, um einen weiteren Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit zu verhindern. In Deutschland dürfte es bis Mitte 2011 dauern, ehe die Arbeitslosigkeit wieder fällt. Der Wirtschaftsausblick ist die halbjährliche Konjunkturprognose der OECD.
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Book Details
Editors
Categories
Business & Economics > International > Economics
Publishers
Publication year : 2010
License: All rights reserved ©
Times read: 340
