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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009
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- Foreword
- Table of Contents
- Acronyms and Abbreviations
- Symbols
- The Outlook in brief
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Chapter 1
. Overview
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World markets at a glance
- Figure 1.1. Nominal commodity prices projected 15-60% higher than 19972006 but substantially lower than in the 2007-08 peak
- Figure 1.2. Real crop prices to fall from peaks but to remain above 19972006 average
- Figure 1.3. Crops production and consumption growth from 2006-08 average to 2018, per cent
- Figure 1.4. Livestock production and consumption growth from 2006-08 average to 2018, per cent
- Figure 1.5. Export growth from 2006-08 average to 2018, per cent
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Main trends in commodity markets
- Grain markets find a new equilibrium
- Wheat transactions fuel expanded grain trade
- Productivity increases support the rice sector but climate change could forestall progress
- Edible oil demand drives the oilseed complex
- Policy reform and energy demand set to shape sugar markets
- Poultry and pigmeat demand in non-OECD countries underpins the global meat sector
- Developing countries fuel dairy output growth but only few participate in export expansion
- Biofuel demand likely to be driven more by policy mandates than by markets
- United States, Brazil and the EU continue to dominate biofuels
- Agricultural commodity markets have responded strongly to high prices
- + Productivity increases and higher stocks to contain prices but energy linkages to add pressure
- Some strengthening in sugar prices and the white differential towards the end of the Outlook
- + Meat quotations likely to fall in real terms but dairy product prices to hold firm
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Main trends in food prices
- Notes
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World markets at a glance
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Chapter 2. How Resilient is Agriculture to the Global Economic Crisis?
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The deepening of the financial and economic crisis
- Business is not as usual
- What does it all mean for the Agricultural Outlook?
- Impact assessment of alternative scenarios
- + Lower income growth and different recovery scenarios
- + Main results of scenarios
- Little impact on biofuel markets
- + Crops affected moderately, but more than biofuels
- + Livestock products are more sensitive to lower incomes
- + Conclusions
- + Effects of the financial crisis on the agri-food sector: views from industry players
- + Agricultural futures markets and speculative activity
- Notes
- References
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The deepening of the financial and economic crisis
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Chapter 3
. Can Agriculture Meet the Growing Demand for Food?
- Figure 3.1. Agricultural production index by region
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Land and agriculture
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Technology and productivity
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Water and climate change
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Summary and key messages
- Bringing more land into production will involve higher costs and prices
- Research and development is an investment priority
- Reforming institutions and infrastructure is a necessary condition
- Water use management in agriculture has to improve
- Agriculture must adapt to climate change
- Investment in agriculture is necessary but insufficient for food security
- + Fisheries sustainability is critical to overall food supplies
- Notes
- References
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Chapter 4
. Macroeconomic and Policy Assumptions
- Business is not as usual
- + The main underlying assumptions
- + Slower population growth in the coming decade
- + Inflation to remain low across the OECD area
- + Oil prices fluctuated markedly in 2008
- + Inflation to reduce the value of the currency of some dynamic economies in the long term
- Domestic support and trade policy affect agricultural markets
- Rapid deterioration in short term global economic outlook
- World trade is tumbling
- Policy response has been robust
- + But with muted effect thus far
- What does it all mean for the Outlook?
- Uncertainties abound
- References
- + Chapter 5 . Biofuels
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Chapter 6
. Cereals
- + World market trends and prospects
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Main market developments: Wheat and coarse grains
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Main market developments: Rice
- Responding to the 2008 price spike
- + Rice production to grow at slightly slower rates
- Per capita rice consumption to fall, influenced by changing dietary patterns in Asia
- + World rice trade to expand at slower rates than in the past
- Global rice stocks to rebound
- World rice prices to remain high compared with the historical period
- + Key issues and uncertainties
- References
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Chapter 7
. Oilseeds and Oilseed Products
- + World market trends and prospects
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Main market developments
- + Oilseed production is expected to increase by 30% over the Outlook period
- + Oilseed exports remain very concentrated – no change expected
- Oilseed imports are less concentrated overall, but China accounts for almost half
- + Growth in oilseed meal use driven by non-OECD countries
- + Growth in vegetable oil supply and demand expected to slow despite increasing non- food use
- + Vegetable oil trade driven by consumption growth in large developing economies and biodiesel use
- Global oilseed meal exports grow slower, Argentina maintains dominant position
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Key issues and uncertainties
- Development of bioenergy remains contingent on future policy decisions and crude oil prices
- Policy responses to volatile markets cannot be excluded
- Market stability increasingly at risk because of continuing supply and demand concentration
- Shift towards more sustainable production methods can affect global production and trade patterns
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Chapter 8
. Sugar
- + World market trends and prospects
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Main market developments
- + Slower growth in production in the near term reduces global stocks
- + Demand growth expected to remain resilient in face of economic downturn
- + Production set to expand in low cost producers and contract in others
- + Brazil remains the market leader and to continue to expand rapidly
- + Sugar imports to expand in Asian countries while contracting in Russia
- African countries to benefit from higher demand in EU and regional markets
- + Key issues and uncertainties
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Chapter 9. Meat
- + World market trends and prospects
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Main market developments
- + Meat prices increasing in nominal terms
- + Despite dampened economic growth in the beginning of the projection period, worldwide meat consumption is increasing
- + Increasing world demand will mainly be met by production from non-OECD countries
- + Further growth in world meat trade
- + Japan to overtake Russia as the leading meat importing country
- Key issues and uncertainties
- Notes
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Chapter 10
. Dairy
- + World market trends and prospects
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Main market developments
- + International prices to rebound but to remain far from recent record levels
- + After strong gains a return to more modest milk production growth rates
- Longer term milk production growth potential receiving renewed interest
- Production to increase mainly for butter and WMP
- + World exports to increase but market shares of majority of traditional exporters to shrink
- + Imports to remain region specific and affected by income profile
- + Dairy products remain among the agricultural commodities for which consumption exhibits the highest growth rates.
- Key issues and uncertainties
- + Methodology
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Annex A. Assumptions Tables
- Table A.1. Economic assumptions
- Table A.2. Main policy assumptions for cereal markets
- Table A.3. Main policy assumptions for oilseed markets
- Table A.4. Main policy assumptions for sugar markets
- Table A.5. Main policy assumptions for meat markets
- Table A.6. Main policy assumptions for dairy markets
- Table A.7. Main policy assumptions for biofuel markets
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Annex B. Commodity Tables
- Table B.1. Wheat projections
- Table B.2. Coarse grain projections
- Table B.3. Rice projections
- Table B.4. Oilseed projections
- Table B.5. Oilseed meal projections
- Table B.6. Vegetable oil projections
- Table B.7. Sugar projections (in raw sugar equivalent)
- Table B.8. Beef and veal projections
- Table B.9. Pig meat projections
- Table B.10. Poultry meat projections
- Table B.11. Sheep meat projections
- Table B.12. Butter projections
- Table B.13. Cheese projections
- Table B.14. Skim milk powder projections
- Table B.15. Whole milk powder projections
- Table B.16. Milk projections
- Table B.17. Whey powder and casein projections
- Table B.18. Biofuels projections : Ethanol
- Table B.19. Biofuels projections : Biodiesel
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Annex C. World Prices and Projections
- Table C.1. World pricesa
- Table C.2. World trade projections
- Table C.3. World cereal projections
- Table C.4. World oilseed projections
- Table C.5. World sugar projections (in raw sugar equivalent)
- Table C.6. World meat projections
- Table C.7. World dairy projections (butter and cheese)
- Table C.8. World dairy projections (powders and casein)
- + Annex D. Information on Food Price Changes
- Glossary of Terms
Der OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009-2018, der gemeinsam von der OECD und der UN- Ernährungs- und Landwirtschaftsorganisation (FAO) herausgeben wird, analysiert die Auswirkungen der Wirtschaftskrise auf die Landwirtschaft weltweit. Er bietet aktuelle Prognosen zur Preisentwicklung im Landwirtschaftssektor und beurteilt die Entwicklungen der Agrarmärkte in der nächsten Dekade.
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Book Details
Editors
Categories
Business & Economics > International > Economics
Publishers
Publication year : 2009
License: All rights reserved ©
Times read: 11
