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OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050
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- Foreword
- Acknowledgements
- Table of Contents
- Acronyms and Abbreviations
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Executive Summary
- 1. Introduction
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2. What could the environment look like in 2050?
- Table 0.1. Key environmental challenges: Trends and projections without new policies
- Figure 0.1. GHG emissions by region: Baseline, 2010-2050
- Figure 0.2. Effects of different pressures on terrestrial MSA: Baseline, 2010 to 2050
- Figure 0.3. Global water demand: Baseline, 2000 and 2050
- Figure 0.4. Global premature deaths from selected environmental risks: Baseline, 2010 to 2050
- Figure 0.5. 450 Core scenario: Global emissions and cost of mitigation
- + 3. What policies can change this outlook?
- + 4. Making reform happen and mainstreaming green growth
- 5. Conclusion
- + Chapter 1. Introduction
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Chapter 2. Socio-economic Developments
- + Key messages
- + 1. Introduction
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2. Key trends and projections
- + Demographic developments
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Economic growth
- Figure 2.5. Real gross domestic product in per capita and absolute terms, 1970-2008
- Figure 2.6. Projections for real gross domestic product: Baseline, 2010-2050
- Box 2.2. The complex link between economic shocks and environmental pressure
- Table 2.1. Annual average real GDP growth rates: Baseline, 2010-2050
- Table 2.2. Annual per capita GDP and household consumption: Baseline, 20102050
- Box 2.3. The conditional convergence methodology: Assumptions for model-based projections
- Figure 2.7. Average annual population and employment growth rates, 2010-2050
- Figure 2.8. Global trends in the proportion of value added by sector, 1970-2008
- Figure 2.9. Share of sectors in real GDP by region: Baseline, 2010-2050
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3. The links between economic activity and environmental pressures
- Notes
- References
- + Annex 2.A. Modelling Background Information on Socio-economic Developments
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Chapter 3.
Climate Change
- + Key messages
- 1. Introduction
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2. Trends and projections
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Greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations
- Figure 3.1. GHG emissions, 1970-2005
- Figure 3.2. Decoupling trends: CO2 emissions versus GDP in the OECD and BRIICS, 1990-2010
- Figure 3.3. Energy-related CO2 emissions per capita, OECD/BRIICS: 2000 and 2008
- + Box 3.1. Production versus demand-based emissions
- Figure 3.5. GHG emissions: Baseline, 2010-2050
- Figure 3.6. GHG emissions per capita: Baseline, 2010-2050
- Figure 3.7. Global CO2 emissions by source: Baseline, 1980-2050
- + Box 3.2. Land-use emissions of CO2 – past trends and future projections
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Impacts of climate change
- Figure 3.9. Long-run CO2-concentrations and temperature increase: Baseline, 1970-21001
- Figure 3.10. Change in annual temperature: Baseline and 450 ppm scenarios, 1990-2050
- Figure 3.11. Change in annual precipitation: Baseline, 1990-2050
- Figure 3.12. Key impacts of increasing global temperature
- + Box 3.3. Example of assets exposed to climate change: Coastal cities
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Greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations
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3. Climate change: The state of policy today
- The international challenge: Overcoming inertia
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National action to mitigate climate change
- Table 3.1. Examples of policy tools for climate change mitigation
- Table 3.2. National climate change legislation: Coverage and scope, selected countries
- Table 3.3. Status of emission trading schemes
- Box 3.4. The EU-Emissions Trading Scheme: Recent developments
- Figure 3.14. Government RD&D expenditures in energy in IEA member countries: 19742009
- + Box 3.5. The growth in renewable energy power plants
- Box 3.6. Greening household behaviour: The role of public policies
- + National action to adapt to climate change
- Getting the policy mix right: Interactions between adaptation and mitigation
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4. Policy steps for tomorrow: Building a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy
- Box 3.7. The UNEP Emissions Gap Report
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What if …? Three scenarios for stabilising emissions at 450 ppm
- Table 3.5. Overview of the Environmental Outlook mitigation scenarios
- Figure 3.16. Alternative emission pathways, 2010-2100
- Figure 3.17. Concentration pathways for the four Outlook scenarios including all climate forcers, 2010-2100
- Figure 3.18. 450 Core scenario: emissions and cost of mitigation, 2010-2050
- Box 3.8. Cost uncertainties and modelling frameworks
- + Box 3.9. What if… the mitigation burden was shared differently? How permit allocation rules matter
- Figure 3.20. GHG abatements in the 450 Core Accelerated Action and 450 Core scenarios compared to the Baseline, 2020 and 2030
- + Box 3.10. Implications of technology options
- Table 3.6. How targets and actions pledged under the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements are interpreted as emission changes under the 450 Delayed Action scenario: 2020 compared to 1990
- Figure 3.22. Regional real income impacts, 450 Core versus 450 Delayed Action scenarios
- + Box 3.11. Mind the gap: Will the Copenhagen pledges deliver enough?
- Table 3.8. Competitiveness impacts of the 450 Delayed Action scenario, 2020 and 2050: % change from Baseline
- + Less stringent climate mitigation (550 ppm) scenarios
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Actions needed for an ambitious, global climate policy framework
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Finding synergies among climate change strategies and other goals
- Notes
- References
- + Annex 3.A. Modelling Background Information on Climate Change
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Chapter 4.
Biodiversity
- + Key messages
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1. Introduction
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2. Key trends and projections
- + Biodiversity trends: Past and present
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Biodiversity trends: Future projections
- Figure 4.8. Terrestrial mean species abundance per biome: Baseline, 2000-2050
- Figure 4.9. Terrestrial mean species abundance per region: Baseline, 2010-2050
- Table 4.1. Biodiversity pressures modelled for the Environmental Outlook to 2050
- Figure 4.10. Effects of different pressures on terrestrial MSA: Baseline, 2010 to 2050
- Figure 4.11. Relative share of each pressure to additional terrestrial MSA loss: Baseline, 2010-2030 and 2030-2050
- Figure 4.12. Global forest area change: Baseline, 2010-2050
- Figure 4.13. Change in production forest area: Baseline, 2010-2050
- Figure 4.14. Change in global food crop area: Baseline, 2010-2050
- Figure 4.15. Change in global grazing area (grass and fodder): Baseline, 2010-2050
- + Impacts of biodiversity loss and linkages with climate change, water and health
- + 3. Biodiversity: The state of policy today
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4. Need for further action
- Notes
- References
- + Annex 4.A. Modelling Background Information on Biodiversity
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Chapter 5.
Water
- + Key messages
- + 1. Introduction
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2. Key trends and projections
- Box 5.1. Key definitions
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Freshwater demand and exploitation
- Figure 5.1. OECD freshwater abstraction by major use and GDP, 1990-2009
- Figure 5.2. Annual freshwater abstraction per capita, OECD countries
- Figure 5.3. Water stress, OECD countries
- Figure 5.4. Global water demand: Baseline, 2000 and 2050
- Box 5.2. Uncertainties about agricultural water demand
- Figure 5.5. Water stress by river basin: Baseline, 2000 and 2050
- Box 5.3. The impact of climate change on freshwater: An example from Chile
- + Water-related disasters
- + Water quality
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Access to water supply and sanitation services
- Figure 5.10. OECD population connected to wastewater treatment plants, 19902009
- Figure 5.11. OECD population connected to public wastewater treatment plants by country
- Box 5.5. The Iberoamerican Water Programme
- Figure 5.12. Population lacking access to an improved water source: Baseline, 1990-2050
- Figure 5.13. Population lacking access to basic sanitation facilities: Baseline, 19902050
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3. Policy: Current and future scenarios
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An inventory of water policy instruments
- Table 5.1. Selected policy instruments for water resource management
- Box 5.6. Tradable nutrient rights to mitigate nutrient flows: The case of Lake Taupo, New Zealand
- Figure 5.14. Unit price of water and wastewater services to OECD households (including taxes), 2007/08
- Box 5.7. Australia’s National Water Initiative
- + Box 5.8. Policy response to water stress in Israel
- Box 5.9. The EU Water Framework Directive: A river basin approach
- Box 5.10. Reform of agricultural support and water: The case of the European Union
- Box 5.11. Economic analysis of the virtual water and water footprint concepts for water policies
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What if…? Three model-based simulations of alternative water futures
- Figure 5.16. Number of people living in water-stressed river basins in 2000 and in 2050
- Figure 5.17. River discharges of nutrients into the sea: Baseline and Nutrient Recycling and Reduction scenario, 1950-2050
- Figure 5.18. Number of additional people with access to water supply and sanitation in the Accelerated Access scenario, compared to the Baseline, 2030 and 2050
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An inventory of water policy instruments
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4. Need for further action: Emerging issues in water policy
- + Seeing water as an essential driver of green growth
- + Allocating enough water for healthy ecosystems
- + Fostering greater coherence among water, energy, environment and food policies
- Developing alternative sources of water
- Filling information gaps
- Designing reforms that are realistic and politically acceptable
- Notes
- References
- + Annex 5.A. Modelling Background Information on Water
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Chapter 6. Health and Environment
- + Key messages
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1. Introduction
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2. Air pollution
- + Impacts on human health
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Key trends and projections in air pollution
- Figure 6.1. SO2, NOx, and black carbon (BC) emissions by region: Baseline, 20102050
- Figure 6.2. PM10 concentrations for major cities: Baseline, 2010-2050
- Figure 6.3. Urban population and annual mean PM10 concentrations: Baseline, 2010-2050
- Figure 6.4. Ground-level ozone concentrations for major cities: Baseline, 2010-2050
- Figure 6.5. Premature deaths worldwide from exposure to PM: Baseline
- Box 6.2. Factors behind the increase in premature deaths from exposure to urban PM air pollution
- Figure 6.6. Premature deaths linked to ground-level ozone worldwide: Baseline
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Air pollution: The state of policy today
- Table 6.3. Selected policy approaches for air pollution management
- Figure 6.7. Standards for HC and NOx emissions from petrol-driven vehicles in the US, Japan and the EU, 1970-2010
- Figure 6.8. Tax rates on NOx emissions in selected OECD countries, 2010
- Figure 6.9. Taxes on petrol and diesel in OECD countries, 2000 and 2011
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Need for further action
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3. Unsafe water supply and poor sanitation
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4. Chemicals
- + 5. Climate change
- Notes
- References
- + Annex 6.A. Modelling Background Information on Health and Environment
- + Annex A. Modelling Framework
Humanity has witnessed unprecedented growth and prosperity in the past decades, with the size of the world economy more than tripling and population increasing by over 3 billion people since 1970. This growth, however, has been accompanied by environmental pollution and natural resource depletion. The current growth model and the mismanagement of natural assets could ultimately undermine human development.
The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 asks “What will the next four decades bring?” Based on joint modelling by the OECD and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, it looks forward to the year 2050 to find out what demographic and economic trends might mean for the environment if the world does not adopt more ambitious green policies. It also looks at what policies could change that picture for the better. This Outlook focuses on four areas: climate change, biodiversity, freshwater and health impacts of pollution. These four key environmental challenges were identified by the previous Environmental Outlook to 2030 (OECD, 2008) as “Red Light” issues requiring urgent attention.
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Book Details
Editors
Categories
Business & Economics > International > General
Publishers
Publication year : 2012
License: All rights reserved ©
Times read: 45
