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OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2011 Issue 2
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- Table of Contents
- Summary of projections
- Editorial: The Policy Imperative: Rebuild Confidence
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Chapter 1.
General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation
- Summary
- + Introduction
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Key forces acting
- Figure 1.1. Business surveys point to a much weaker outlook
- Figure 1.2. Equity markets have weakened again
- Figure 1.3. It has become more expensive to insure unsecured bank debt against default
- Figure 1.4. Investors are now discriminating strongly across euro area sovereign bonds
- Figure 1.5. Overall financial conditions have been hit in the euro area
- + Box 1.1. Risk awareness, uncertainty and confidence
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The muddling-through projection
- Box 1.2. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections
- Figure 1.6. Global growth is heavily dependent on the non-OECD economies
- + Box 1.3. The anchoring of inflation expectations and the risk of deflation
- Figure 1.7. Underlying inflation is likely to moderate
- Table 1.2. OECD labour market conditions are no longer improving
- Figure 1.8. Considerable labour market slack is set to persist
- Figure 1.9. Global imbalances remain elevated
- Table 1.3. World trade is slowing and imbalances remain
- + Policies in the muddling-through projection
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Alternative scenarios for the euro area
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- Table 1.5. Bank exposure to Greek sovereign and total debt
- Figure 1.11. Official loans to the governments of Greece, Ireland and Portugal
- Table 1.6. EU / IMF Programme countries : Funding needs and sources
- Figure 1.12. Belgium, Italy and Spain: the impact of higher interest rates on consolidation needs
- Table 1.7. Stress-tested banks’ exposures to Belgian, Italian and Spanish debt
- Table 1.8. US and Japanese banks: Exposure to programme and vulnerable euro countries
- + Box 1.5. Calibrating a stylised downside scenario in the euro area
- Figure 1.13. Belgium, Italy, Spain and euro area programme countries: bond-market size, government funding needs and banks' holding of sovereign bonds
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Box 1.6. Calibrating a stylised upside scenario in the euro area
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Figure 1.14. The evolution of intra-euro area unit labour costs
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Alternative fiscal policy scenarios for the United States
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Table 1.9. The impact of stronger US fiscal consolidation
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Table 1.10. The combined impact of stronger US fiscal consolidation and a stylised euro area downside scenario
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Table 1.9. The impact of stronger US fiscal consolidation
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The OECD Strategic Response to an economic relapse
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Bibliography
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Chapter 2.
Developments in Individual OECD Countries
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United States
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Japan
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Euro area
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Germany
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France
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Italy
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- United Kingdom
- Canada
- Australia
- Austria
- Belgium
- Chile
- Czech Republic
- Denmark
- Estonia
- Finland
- Greece
- Hungary
- Iceland
- Ireland
- Israel
- Korea
- Luxembourg
- Mexico
- Netherlands
- New Zealand
- Norway
- Poland
- Portugal
- Slovak Republic
- Slovenia
- Spain
- Sweden
- Switzerland
- Turkey
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United States
- + Chapter 3. Developments in Selected Non-member Economies
- Special chapters in recent issues of OECD Economic Outlook
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Statistical Annex
- National accounts reporting systems, base years and latest data updates
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Annex Tables
- Annex Table 1. Real GDP
- Annex Table 2. Nominal GDP
- Annex Table 3. Real private consumption expenditure
- Annex Table 4. Real public consumption expenditure
- Annex Table 5. Real total gross fixed capital formation
- Annex Table 6. Real gross private non-residential fixed capital formation
- Annex Table 7. Real gross residential fixed capital formation
- Annex Table 8. Real total domestic demand
- Annex Table 9. Foreign balance contributions to changes in real GDP
- Annex Table 10. Output gaps
- Annex Table 11. Compensation per employee in the private sector
- Annex Table 12. Labour productivity in the total economy
- Annex Table 13. Unemployment rates: commonly used definitions
- Annex Table 14. Harmonised unemployment rates
- Annex Table 15. Labour force, employment and unemployment
- Annex Table 16. GDP deflators
- Annex Table 17. Private consumption deflators
- Annex Table 18. Consumer price indices
- Annex Table 19. Oil and other primary commodity markets
- Annex Table 20. Employment rates, participation rates and labour force
- Annex Table 21. Potential GDP, employment and capital stock
- Annex Table 22. Structural unemployment and unit labour costs
- Annex Table 23. Household saving rates
- Annex Table 24. Gross national saving
- Annex Table 25. General government total outlays
- Annex Table 26. General government total tax and non-tax receipts
- Annex Table 27. General government financial balances
- Annex Table 28. General government cyclically-adjusted balances
- Annex Table 29. General government underlying balances
- Annex Table 30. General government underlying primary balances
- Annex Table 31. General government net debt interest payments
- Annex Table 32. General government gross financial liabilities
- Annex Table 33. General government net financial liabilities
- Annex Table 34. Short-term interest rates
- Annex Table 35. Long-term interest rates
- Annex Table 36. Nominal exchange rates (vis-à-vis the US dollar)
- Annex Table 37. Effective exchange rates
- Annex Table 38. Export volumes of goods and services
- Annex Table 39. Import volumes of goods and services
- Annex Table 40. Export prices of goods and services
- Annex Table 41. Import prices of goods and services
- Annex Table 42. Competitive positions: relative consumer prices
- Annex Table 43. Competitive positions: relative unit labour costs
- Annex Table 44. Export performance for total goods and services
- Annex Table 45. Shares in world exports and imports
- Annex Table 46. Geographical structure of world trade growth
- Annex Table 47. Trade balances for goods and services
- Annex Table 48. Investment income, net
- Annex Table 49. Total transfers, net
- Annex Table 50. Current account balances
- Annex Table 51. Current account balances as a percentage of GDP
- Annex Table 52. Structure of current account balances of major world regions
- Annex Table 53. Export market growth in goods and services
- Annex Table 54. Import penetration
- Annex Table 55. Quarterly demand and output projections
- Annex Table 56. Quarterly price, cost and unemployment projections
- Annex Table 57. Contributions to changes in real GDP in OECD countries
- Annex Table 58. Household wealth and indebtedness
- Annex Table 59. House prices
- Annex Table 60. House price ratios
- Annex Table 61. Central government financial balances
- Annex Table 62. Maastricht definition of general government gross public debt
- Annex Table 63. Monetary and credit aggregates: recent trends
- Annex Table 64. Macroeconomic indicators for selected non-member economies
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD’s twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, chapters summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country and an extensive statistical annex.
Book Details
Editors
Categories
Business & Economics > Forecasting
Publishers
Publication year : 2011
License: All rights reserved ©
Times read: 0
